Hedge Funds And Oil Predictions

Filed in archive Hedgetalk on February 28, 2007

Oil has been predicted to rise 4.2% to $64.15 a barrel in New York as hedge-funds buy futures and U.S. demand increases, Societe Generale said.

$64.15 is a resistance level predicted by Fibonacci analysis, which uses a mathematical sequence to forecast turning points in prices, said Steve Rowles, an analyst at Hong Kong-based CFC Seymour Ltd.

The bank's head of commodities research, Frederic Lasserre, said $64.15 is an "obvious short-term target," based on charts traders use to identify peaks in prices. Futures will extend their 23 percent rally since reaching a 19-month low on Jan. 18 because of investments by hedge-funds and the strength of U.S gasoline, the report from France's second-largest lender said.

"Funds are turning aggressive buyers on most commodities," Paris-based Lasserre said in the Feb. 26 edition of the bank's weekly Oil Drivers report. "Demand is strongly back in the driving seat."