US Stock Market March 21 2005
Filed in archive Hedgetalk by murry on March 21, 2005
. Last weeks US option Expiration , which was unwound up could not stop the slide.
And the rebalance of the SP 500 prevented the Option pressure from gaining any real strength.
The VIX at CBOE , in its Weekly Buy signal for a 2nd week should push the Vix back up to the top of it`s range.
The Range of the VIX in the 80`s before the Crash of 87 was 12 to 17, so this move back down from the moon over the last 17years is more natural then many understand.The range grew from the over priced puts.
And now it seems we have falling back to the norm, if there is one in this world.
The Dollar went into a weekly buy and Gold went into a weekly sell. It seems the US fed will increase .50% not .25 % on Tuesday with this type of action.
Hedge funds are coming to that ruff point, where the Carry Trade ( borrowing short term lending long term ) is hard to profit from (or sleep at night ). It has been a easy trade if there is such a thing. But now the Fed may ratchet up its rate rise and that will make the market jump more then it has over the last 12 months. And since 9 out 10 new "Hedge Funds" are more Leverage funds , then hedge ( low risk option derivative funds with limited risk with unlimited gain) it will add more pressure.
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